Query Response

Responder: Cameron (Covid-19 Expert)

A big question scientists are trying to answer is whether coronavirus peaks during the winter and ebbs during the summer, like the flu. If there’s a seasonal aspect to the virus, then it also means we have to plan for levels of infection in the Northern Hemisphere to rise rapidly as autumn sets in. The answer is unclear. A new study that hasn’t been peer-reviewed yet suggests that 95% of positive cases globally have thus far occurred between -2 and 10 °C, which could indicate greater transmission in cooler climates. The prospect of seasonality is already influencing how some countries are approaching the problem. The UK’s maligned former strategy to encourage herd immunity assumed in part that the country needed to plan for keeping its health-care system from being overwhelmed by peak caseloads in winter. Yet so many different variables can influence transmission. We’ve only known about the virus for a few months and have yet to actually observe what will happen as the seasons change. The virus may just barrel through the summer unimpeded, or it may exhibit stranger behavior in the winter. We need more data to make strong predictions.